I've observed that as companies plan further into the future, fewer people challenge the assumptions behind those plans.
Meanwhile, their commitments keep growing.
In the first year, everything is closely examined, e.g., prices, demand, hiring, costs, since it's imminent.
But by year three or four, the targets and figures are still there, yet few revisit whether their original assumptions are still valid.
They often just stay because they were set long ago.
The farther out the commitment, the less attention the foundational assumptions seem to get.
For instance, a company might decide to invest heavily now, expecting demand to stay strong in three years.
Initially, everyone agrees, and the investment moves forward.
But two years later, market conditions or customer behavior might change.
The assumption could be invalid, yet the funds are already committed, making it harder to pivot.
By then, the window to change course has closed.
This isn't about poor predictions; change is normal. I believe the answer isn't perfect forecasting (which is impossible) but rather periodic reviews of long-term assumptions before it's too late.
When assumptions sit untouched for too long, it's easy to forget why they were made.
The biggest, most long-term commitments often rely on assumptions that haven't been questioned in a long time.
Regularly rechecking these long-term assumptions allows companies to adapt while there's still time to act.
